The downfall of tech and preparation

The premise

I've always wanted to be a SWE ever since I first played my first MMO. Tech-savy family members tried to stop me, since SWEs back in the day were treated like absolute peasants with shit pay. They obviously have failed.

I got extremely lucky that I started my career in the middle of the tech boom. Although I was grateful, IMO, BigTech paying ridiculous amount of compensation made sense only until they 'corporatified' themselves in terms of size and operation.

Current situation

Here is a list of personally-interested recent layoffs:

• Google, 12000, 2023/01/20
• Wayfair, 1750, 2023/01/20
• Microsoft, 10000, 2023/01/18
• Coinbase, 950, 2023/01/10
• Amazon, 8000, 2023/01/04

The community, including myself, is expecting layoffs to continue throughout the year.

Cash in hand remains strong for some companies (Microsoft, Google) but not for many (Meta, Amazon, Netflix).

There is no objective data on the layoffs. The probably will never be one. From digging LinkedIn and Blind, it seems like non-SWEs (recruiters, TPMs, etc) were impacted the most. Most SWEs who got laid off seem to be relatively new to the company (1~2 years of tenure). I have no objective data to prove this.

My predictions

Without much proof to back it up this post, I foresee the recession to start easing off around 2023Q4 and economic growth to resume around 2024Q4.

Given this, my predictions:

• Meta will have a major layoff and reduction in size, I don't see a way for them to accelerate their returns for their investments in VR/MR to power through the recession. The cash in hand doesn't seem enough to survive without any major layoffs. I expect the company size to reduce by 60% (vs covid peak) at minimum.
• BigTech will focus on expansion to cheaper countries (ie. outside US).
• A lot of current startups will die, and lots of new ones will start. The new startup scene will now focus on sustainability and profitability instead of focusing on being bought off by BigTech.
• IC compensation growth and awards will remain high as long as BigTech continues the layoffs.
• All exiting BigTech will be come 'the next IBM/Oracle'. New version of BigTech will rise. Simply because innovation cannot happen anymore at the pace that it used to be in BigTech.
• 2023-2024 will be the year to be sold to BigTech. A lot of them are holding onto their cash for a reason and they know their pace of innovation has dwindled compared to 2010s.
• End of war in Europe will greatly help the tech industry and the US politics around. I have no clue if it will ever end by 2024 though.

Preparing

• Be under the management chain who can give you the work experience that you want. Ideally, this should stretch up to your department's VP level. Keep them happy and they'll shield you from BS.
• Be actually good at the job. As much as I hate to say it, there are tonnes of engineers in BigTech who are terrible at everything other than writing descent code or designing simple systems.
• Lower your cost of living, obviously. Consider working remotely in a more affordable area. Buy a home to live in, if you haven't already.

Good luck to 2023-2024 graduates, consider doing more studies if you can afford to.

Long-term thinking

• Don't make working in BigTech one of your personalities.
• Grow your career in the pace you can manage. Know when to pause and take time to digest. Unless you are buddies with the SVPs, you are just a cog in the machine.

I guess TL;DR for this is, stay humble and don't let your ego consume you.