The downfall of tech and preparation


The premise

I've always wanted to be a SWE ever since I first played my first MMO. Tech-savy family members tried to stop me, since SWEs back in the day were treated like absolute peasants with shit pay. They obviously have failed.

I got extremely lucky that I started my career in the middle of the tech boom. Although I was grateful, IMO, BigTech paying ridiculous amount of compensation made sense only until they 'corporatified' themselves in terms of size and operation.

Current situation

Here is a list of personally-interested recent layoffs:

The community, including myself, is expecting layoffs to continue throughout the year.

Cash in hand remains strong for some companies (Microsoft, Google) but not for many (Meta, Amazon, Netflix).

There is no objective data on the layoffs. The probably will never be one. From digging LinkedIn and Blind, it seems like non-SWEs (recruiters, TPMs, etc) were impacted the most. Most SWEs who got laid off seem to be relatively new to the company (1~2 years of tenure). I have no objective data to prove this.

My predictions

Without much proof to back it up this post, I foresee the recession to start easing off around 2023Q4 and economic growth to resume around 2024Q4.

Given this, my predictions:


Good luck to 2023-2024 graduates, consider doing more studies if you can afford to.

Long-term thinking

I guess TL;DR for this is, stay humble and don't let your ego consume you.